Spatial Variability in Seasonal Prediction Skill of SSTs: Inherent Predictability or Forecast Errors?

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following

Diagnosing CFS2 forecast skill using empirical models of climate prediction and predictability from sub-seasonal to multi-decadal scales

We propose to employ a seamless empirical dynamical modeling approach to construct a state-of-the-art benchmark probabilistic forecast system and to evaluate factors impacting predictability at forecast lead times ranging from weeks to decades in the CFS2 forecast system, including climate drift. The model used, a linear inverse model (LIM) derived from observed simultaneous and time-lag correl...

Diagnosing Sources of U.S. Seasonal Forecast Skill

Improved seasonal forecast using ozone hole variability?

[1] Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate change has been partly attributed to Antarctic ozone depletion in the literatures. Here we show that the ozone hole has affected not only the long-term climate change but also the interannual variability of SH surface climate. A significant negative correlation is observed between September ozone concentration and the October southern annular mode index, res...

Seasonal predictability and spatial coherence of rainfall

This study examines space-time characteristics of seasonal rainfall predictability in a tropical region, by analyzing observed data and model simulations over Senegal. Predictability is analyzed in terms of the spatial coherence of observed interannual variability at the station scale, and within-ensemble coherence of general circulation model (GCM) simulations with observed sea surface tempera...